Let's See How I Did - wrap

Well, for the players who played consistently, I predicted pretty well. Kent was mighty close.
predicted: 148 games, .298, 21 HR, 110 RBI.
actual 149 games, .298, 29 HR, 105 RBI

Choi, I underestimated. Philips, I overestimated.

Of course, Valentin, Izturis, Bradley and Drew were mostly in the hospital ward.

Pitching? Close on Weaver & Lowe. I predicted Penny as more on the DL than he was (miracle of miracles), and -- sadly -- way over estimated Perez. Silly me believing Erickson had another year in him. I predicted an off year for Gagne, but not one that was off the mound.

I predict that next year's Dodgers will fare better. But the 2005 team gave us a pretty easy record to beat.

Until then, Go Angels!

Let's See How I Did - hitting

Phillips
predicted: .275, 62 RBI
actual: .238, 55 RBI

Valentin
predicted: 79 games, .231, 4 homers, 58 RBI
actual: 56 games, .170, 2 HR, 14 RBI

Izturis
predicted: 160 games, .304, 33 steals, 120 runs.
actual: 106 games, .257, 8 SB, 48 runs

Kent
predicted: 148 games, .298, 21 homers, and 110 RBI.
actual 149 games, .298, 29 HR, 105 RBI

Choi
predicted: 68 games, .221, 8 homers
actual: 133 games, .253, 15 HR

Bradley
predicted: 153 games, .294, 24 homers, 20 SB.
actual: 75 games, .290, 13 HR, 6 SB

Drew:
predicted: 120 games, .253, 21 homers
actual: 72 games, .286, 15 HR

Let's See How I Did - pitching

Weaver
predicted as Dodger's top pitch: arguably so.
predicted: 16-11, 4.3 ERA, 148 K
actual: 14-11, 4.22 ERA, 157 K

Lowe
predicted: 15-12, 3.85 ERA, 125K
actual: 12-15, 3.61 ERA, 146K

Penny:
predicted: 3-4, 5.1 ERA, 28 K
actual: 7-9, 3.9 ERA, 122 K

Odalis Perez
predicted: 17-8, 3.1 ERA, 175K, 240 innings
actual: 7-8, 4.56 ERA, 74K, 108 innings

Erickson
predicted: 13-10, 3.8 ERA
actual: 1-4, 6.02

Jackson
predicted: 4-9, 5.2 ERA
actual: 2-2, 6.28 ERA

Gagne:
predicted: 4-4, 39 saves, 3.4 ERA, 5 blown saves
actual: 1-0, 8 saves, 2.7 ERA

Series One: Dodgers in tie for first, Giants in last

It is a beautiful thing when the Dodgers pancake the Giants. It's typical, we professional fans say, that a fan in Dodger Blue among the Black & Orange at SBC gets a pie in the face. At least when the cameras were on him, he seemed to be taking his abuse with a cheery response.

Things I thought were super from the first three games:

1) Defense. Okay, I'll admit that I love to hear Vinny call an extraordinary defensive play. He taught me to love the acrobatic, all-out risk-taking middle infielder. Unfortunately, most of these plays were executed by Vizquel.

2) Valentin can hit a bit. He's hot now, and I hope he stays hot now. If his bat is working for him, maybe he can relax on defense. I really hope so, otherwise we're screwed.

3) Jeff Kent. Maybe this guy was MVP for a reason.

4) Jeff Weaver. My boy. He had a brilliant game replete with nasty stuff and inning-eating efficiency.

5) Odalis. 10 runs for Odalis? Odalis broke out in style this year.

6) And who can't love Izturis hitting a lead-off home run?

Jason L. Phillips

It's official: Ishii to the Mets in exchange for Jason Phillips. Hey, a good trade, I believe.

We may miss Ishii's wins, but what with those other, um, problems like bases on balls, he'll be looking for a NYC apartment, now.

Jason Phillips has one good year under his belt. In 2003 he hit .298 and drove in 58 in 119 games. Since Piazza wants to play behind the plate, we're the beneficiaries of a solid-hitting catcher.

Well, not so last year. Only .218 in 128 games. But that's a 48 point improvement!!! over David Ross. It's a 15 point imprvement over Bako. So even if Phillips duplicates his gutter-ball year, we've got a stronger team.

Or lordy, what if he hits, say .240, or .260, or even comes closer to duplicating .298. Oh, yes, we're in the money.

Predication
.275, 62 RBI and a dependable receiver

Eric Gagne

I love Eric Gagne, who in her right mind doesn't, but this isn't going to be his year. Well, he'll have another terrific year, but it won't be spotless extraordinary and super-human, so we'll be disappointed.

I'm worried about his knee. I'm worried about the luck of the draw. He'll have to sit out some games this year, and he'll struggle through some innings as well, losing a few. I think he needs an "average" year so that he can understand how much fluctuation there is in a career, and learn to rebound and be super-human again.

Prediction:
4-4, 39 saves, 3.4 ERA, 5 blown saves.

Edwin Jackson

Someday "Young Edwin Jackson" is going to be known as "Edwin Jackson."

But not for a little while yet.

If he stays healthy, if he can stay on the club, if he gets his innings in... Edwin Jackson is "Mr. If." Sure, he's got talent and sure, he'll pitch regularly in the majors one day, but he needs to learn how to do it. I am not an advocate of sending him down, rather I think they should give him a consistent role as a fifth starter for the first half of the season to see how he settles in. We're chock full of experienced pitchers who can handle bumping from long relief to spot starter, and we ought to use them that way (Alvarez, Ishii, Erickson). But keep Young Edwin Jackson in the rotation and we'll develop a great pitcher.

So, if...

Prediction:
4-9, 5.2 ERA
and ready to be the pitcher we need next year -- and for years to come

Scott Erickson

Erickson hasn't had a good year since 1999, but I have a hunch he has one more in him. He'll be our Jose Lima this year (ah, that we couldn't have had both Lima and Erickson).

His ERA has never been terribly good, but that was in the DL'ed AL, and it will take time for the NL hitters to figure him out. He'll start the year in the rotation and bounce from there to long relief as needed, and never squeak about how he's being used. He's a pro. He'll be a wonderful influence on the bench, especially with young Edwin Jackson. Yes, folks, this is a good pick up.

Sure, he may tweak something and spend time on the DL, but his track record shows him to be a work hound. He won't sit without a fight.

Prediction:
13-10, 3.8 ERA, and (intangibly) a leader on the club.

Kazuhisa Ishii

Ah. the dreaded # 5 spot, that may become the #3 spot with Penny and Perez out. Ishii will be in and out of the rotation, as he was last year. Please give us a reason to keep you in the starting rotation, Kaz. And then gives us another, and another...

Kaz is wild. Over the last three years, he has averaged almost 6 BB per 9 innings. Yikes! Add that to 5 hits per 9 and you have close to 14 baserunners to deal with. No wonder his ERA was 4.71 last year. [not that the other pitchers are that much better, but Perez at 10.4 is a good comparison]

Prediction:
7-8, 5.2 ERA, more work from the bullpen than in previous years.

Odalis Perez

Here's the man that 2004 crucified. If he had been given run support and a little luck, we'd have been speaking his name as the presumptive opening day pitcher. Perez has got a lot left in the tank, and if the team rallies behind him, he's going to be our stopper.

There is so much I like about Perez. Game after game, the lineup sucked for him. Game after game, he went out and pitched like a man with a mission. 128 K to 44 BB. Good ratio, in fact a great ratio. For three years he's been around 200 innings. This man is a horse and he's breaking out in style this year.

Predication:
17-8, 3.1 ERA, 175K, 240 innings

Brad Penny

I want LoDuca back!

Penny may be another Greg Brock: all potential, all the time. This guy, however, doesn't have the body to survive as long as Brock did with LA (5 years) in the post-Garvery era. He'll pitch a little, get hurt, pitch a little, go on the DL and sit by Darren Dreifort on the bench.

Too bad, because otherwise he'd be a nice third or fourth pitcher. Over at CBS Sportsline, you can find him ranked an anemic #34 in starting pitchers. The really stinky thing is that the Dodgers have three pitchers ranked in the 30's (#31 Weaver, #34 Penny, #36 Perez) and not an arm above that. Dodgers with pitcher rankings in the 30's? Puh-leeze. (Lo Duca is ranked the #5 catcher in the majors, BTW, and #1 in the NL).

Prediction:
3-4, 5.1 ERA, 28 K

Derek Lowe

Lowe is a solid pitcher. He knows how to win and has a shiny ring to prove that (well, as of this writing, there is a ring waiting for him to pick up in Boston once the season starts). Last year was a sub-par year for him at 14-12. Look back to 2003 for 17-7 and 2002 for 21-8. In 2002 he had a sparkling ERA of 2.58.

And all that at Fenway. Dodger Stadium has the pitching mystique, the high mound and the spacious foul territory -- oh wait, that's been snatched up for luxury boxes. On many nights, the air is heavy and the ball stays in. Lowe is going to have another good year.

But will he win 21 or even 17 games? He's got to get run support for that to happen, and he won't get much.

Prediction:
15-12, 3.85 ERA, 125K